my initial leanings are also Packers and Steelers, but let's mix things up.
Green Bay at Chicago = Chicago, 20-18
Green Bay is the better team, as I've been saying for weeks. But the Bears match up with them well. They won early in the season, and only lost by 7 points in Week 17, despite having far less incentive to win. I was impressed with how the Bears' defense stifled the potent Packers' offense. Sure, the Packers' defense stifled our offense even moreso, but seeing the Pack only muster 10 points with their season on the line makes me optimistic that Rodgers won't uncork a giant game against the Bears this week. A true playoff game will undoubtedly bring greater focus and preparation from Green Bay than Week 17 did, but it's not like they were keeping offensive cards hidden under the table in that game, as they simply couldn't afford to.
Also, I think the frigid forecast plays in Chicago's favor slightly. Maybe surprising, given the debacle hosting New England. It's not so much that I think Cutler is a better cold weather quarterback than Rodgers, or that the Bears are a better cold weather team than the Packers. Rather, I saw how Green Bay's offense really stretched its wings in a nice, warm dome game last week. Unpleasant outdoor conditions are less amenable to a high-flying passing game. Because Green Bay has more of an aerial attack than Chicago does to start with, they simply have more to lose in this category. Dunno if that's how it will play out, but anything that can potentially put a damper on what Aaron Rodgers did in the Georgia Dome, or at Arizona last year, should be welcomed by his opponent.
It's not surprising that the Bears handle the Packers better than they do other teams, since Lovie Smith made it his top priority after being hired to beat the Packers. They are 8-6 (.571) in his 7 years as head coach against an above-average Green Bay team that went 62-50 overall, or .554. Past seasons records' obviously don't carry into this one, but the record is reflective of special preparation, imho.
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New York at Pittsburgh = New York, 22-20
Again, Pittsburgh is the better team. But New York's on quite a roll in the playoffs, with a very impressive victory last week. The Steelers' was impressive in its own right, but kind of messy and reliant on weird happenings. Also, the Jets beat Pittsburgh during the regular season, albeit leaning on a 97-yard kickoff return TD which probably won't be replicated this time. Now, I think Big Ben's mobility will make it hard for New York to duplicate what they did against New England, but their defense showed enough versatility and had enough creative play calling that I think they can adjust to a different QB. Rex Ryan is very sharp, and that secondary is smothering.
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yes, i'm sparse on analysis here, but i'm lazy and tired. besides, most of the stats would back up the opposite picks winning, and why should i undermine myself? :P
*fully prepared to go 0-2 this week*
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