In the future, it would be better to post the games in the order that they will be played....
(6) Packers @ (3) Eagles (Sunday 4:30 est)
My pick:
PackersMy Breakdown:
Eagles
The Good: This team is a big play team... I mean that epic MNF game against the Redskins was very good... and then the chokejob that the Giants were involved it was great too. They are able to score chunks of points quickly because Vick can pass well, but also scramble when needed (unlike before where he scanned a few and scrambled). It's hard to argue what this offense is able to do when they have the ball. Their run game is also benefiting a lot from Micheal Vick because of Vick's scrambling ability...
The Bad: This team is not the one that has had a solid defense. Sure they have been able to stop the run as of late... the undersized front 4 tend to magnify this aspect... but they are more of a pass rush-blitz team. However, they have the WORST red zone d of all teams in the NFL (I think they are still 32nd IIRC). That is not conducive to playoff caliber football. Additionally as we have found out for the past few weeks, Vick is not really a long drive type of guy. When you have very good defensive teams like the Bears able to slow and stop him... he's not as effective. The obvious notion of "Vick's sitdown" issue is because he's unable to react to the blitz properly.... which usually requires telling everyone as an audible and having a hot read available. This coupled with Vick's fragility (let's be honest, he's not the toughest SOB physically), makes a pass rush defense want to hurt him... badly. Andy Reid is a pass-first type of coach... and unfortunately the unwillingness to run at times to reduce the pass rush to help out Vick can hurt him....
If They Win: Vick is probably the primary reason for the win... because the other team sucks at stopping the big play. That and a reasonably playmaking defense gives them a chance.
Packers
The Good: Aaron Rodgers is a very good passer... maybe not quite the Peyton Manning or Brady, but surely a good 2nd tier option. This defense is probably the best of the bunch that is left... arguably the most impressive (at least when I watched the Packerts @ Pats game).
The Bad: Rodgers can be his own worse enemy... maybe I've seen enough games where he gets pulverized in a Vick-like way taking sacks when he doesn't need to. He is kinda suffering from Peyton Manning-itis... where there is no consistent running game so he ends up having to do it all... and occasionally being the leading rusher on his team. One would also wonder about this defense... why does it underperform? If you had a championship quality team, it would not be losing so many games that are under a TD score. Part of the hole they are in is not able to beat the Falcons (it's tough to beat the Falcons @ home of course) and somehow lose to the Lions (well, it was @ the Lions, and that was partly with Rodgers). I'm not sure what's exactly wrong, but there is inconsistencies with this team.
If They Win: They win because the Packers will run the ball enough to allow for play action. This defense can stand toe to toe with anyone, but only if it shows up (which it can).
(5) Saints @ (4) Seahawks (Saturday 4:30 est)
My Pick:
SaintsBreakdown:
Saints
The Good: Drew Brees is definitely still playing well enough. Beating the Falcons in Atlanta was very significant when it comes to being confident if the Falcons meet up the Saints again later on (although, Brees had to fight through a pick six). This defense is somewhat comparable to the one in their SB run, despite their struggles early.
The Bad: Brees is playing like crap. A 5-game INT streak is not the way to winning football. This entire team is worse than their SB run of last year (and most SB winning teams are in the same category). This offense really isn't the same... and it's getting worse with the loss of so many RBs. Reggie Bush is overrated... but moreso he's not a 3-down (let alone 4-down) RB. This reduces any chance to run any play action. With so much turnover of the ball on the offensive level, it might simply not be good enough to go all the way.
If They Win: For this team to win, they will need to run more of a short passing game in the absence of having a virtually non-existent run game (unless they find some reasonable RB that can be picked up). This team can win games, but it does solely rely on Brees to do almost everything.
Seahawks
The Good: They were fortunate to get into the playoffs... in the awful NFC West. The Seahawks are only good at home... their record bears that out.
The Bad: There was already too much bad football being played in SNF to express how pissed off I am about this team getting into the playoffs. I understand this team had an awful run d... of course the Rams didn't even try to expose it. Additionally, they are really bad on offense, even with Hasslebeck. When this team loses, it has been by double digits all season. This team has been beaten by too many quality teams (pretty much any team that is above .500). Additionally, Pete Carroll in his career is not a good NFL head coach. The college-coach rah-rah mentality only goes so far. Sure it is easy to argue that this team is rebuilding, but it will go to hell very soon.
If They Win: It is only because the other team fucks up. It's pure and simple. There is no other possible way other than transcending the Cards in their SB year.... it's hard to see this happening.
(6) Jets @ (3) Colts (Saturday 8 est)
My Pick:
ColtsMy Breakdown:
Jets
The Good: If having a big mouth is good, Rex Ryan has it. Mark Sanchez has been better than last year, at least in terms of INTs. He's also lead some notable winning 4th quarter drives. The Jets run defense is pretty damn solid (holding teams to under 4 yards/carry). Of course, Revis and Cromarte are their star corners.
The Bad: Rex Ryan has a foot in his mouth. AFAIK, there's a book on Sanchez that says he's not good in cold weather. Sanchez is overrated, but I tend to think that it's because he's a very raw QB in terms of skills. Most 1st round draft picks for QBs have usually a complete college career.. Sanchez only had 1 year under Pete Carroll (remember him?!? :P ) This Jets defense has allowed for so many 4th quarter comebacks for various teams... Browns, Lions, Texans... you name the weak team, they have beaten them on the schedule. Their schedule is arguably pretty weak so what we have seen as "comeback wins" are because the opposing teams just weren't that good. I'll give you the Steelers as their notable win, but the Steelers have defensive issues when Polamalu is out. This team is not the same one that appeared in last years AFC Championship game with the Colts.... they simply haven't been able to get a good pass rush. That is simply not conducive to success, especially in a blitz offense. Additionally, the running game that is lead by LT has been steadily declining. This is LT's recent history... he's just not the same late in the season... and the wall that every RB hits after 30 makes their effectiveness drop hard and fast. LT is no exception.
If They Win: If this wasn't a common theme, the QB is mostly responsible for a team's success and failure. Sanchez is no exception. If the run game is there, it can minimize Sanchez's mistakes. I'm sure Rex Ryan will also get a goddamn snack after a win, but that's probably being a jackass of me for saying it.
Colts
The Good: Peyton Manning is keeping this ship afloat. The Colts defense has gotten a bit more healthy as of late, and has gotten better as well... in the form of an improved run defense.
The Bad: Peyton is doing waaaaaaaaaay too much. Seeing that 3-game losing stretch with 11 INTs is a scary proposition for any Colts fan. A lot of this has to do with the loss of so many receivers, like Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. So Peyton tends to look relatively uncomfortable in the pocket... because the o-line isn't as it once was plus not all of his receivers are on the same page with him. It also does not help to have a very poor run game.. which has struggled when Addai wasn't playing. This Colts defense on the whole isn't that good... the pass rush tandem of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis is not as effective... and they may be overcompensating to defend the run. This team is kinda like the Saints team... depleted and struggling to get a win.
If They Win: Peyton would have to make many big plays and score often and not get picked off to even get a chance of winning. If Addai runs the ball effectively enough, there's a reasonably good chance to win with play action. The defense can hold its own, but it isn't the same classic Colts defense that most are used to seeing.
(5) Ravens @ (4) Chiefs (Sunday 1 est)
My Pick:
RavensRavens
The Good: The Ravens are still the most physical defense in the league... on equal footing with the Steelers I think. Key win that I recall was one over the Saints (Saints @ Ravens). They also have a very good running game.
The Bad: I honestly don't know how they give up so many points against certain teams... like the Bills. Joe Flacco is progressively getting better, but his playoff performance is notorious for being MIA. If a team forces Flacco to throw the ball (assuming the run game is stopped), he is not quite "good enough" for the task. I don't understand him as a QB that has been in the playoffs every year he has been with the Ravens.
If They Win: Only a "good enough" Flacco, a solid running game, and a turnover making defense is the only shot. One of these things cannot falter for success.
Chiefs
The Good: This team has been pretty solid all year. They seem to resemble the Pats of the West Coast... which can be said of a coaching staff that were former Patriots...
The Bad: Most of the teams they have beaten suck. The AFC West play the NFC West this year... and it seems to be very similar to the year the Matt Cassel had with the 08 Pats. The most notable loss is to the Colts and they struggled to win the division (2-4, 2-2 if you factor out the Raiders). Cassel has had a very good statistical year.. but that is offset with the atrociously bad games... it does feel like that Pats 11-5 non-playoff year... he simply could not beat the teams that were that much better. I don't see it being that much different now. The Chiefs defense is the same way in a sense.. and this team is very much a run-first team...
If They Win: The Chiefs would need to play a solid game overall to succeed. I do not know of Cassel is good enough to win with his arm...
Here's some cliff notes on my matchup opinions:
Watch closely at the Packers defense when it is facing Vick. I honestly think Vick is going to struggle to an extent in this game... this will mainly determine who will win IMO.
The Saints will probably do a bit more short passing in conjunction with Reggie Bush to beat the Seahawks... the Saints injuries will manifest themselves in later games... but just not this one. The talent level is still better for the Saints despite the injuries... but the Seahawks can win if the Saints are really that bad off because of them.
Both the Jets and Colts are worse than they were last year. It begs the question who will win.. Peyton's confidence in his receivers (Blair White, Jacob Tamme for starters) vs the Jets semi-effective pass rush. It is the only game that I see that can go either way. Personally... I kinda want to see the Pats beatdown the Jets again...
The difference between the Chiefs and Ravens is that the Ravens are a veteran tested road team. Chiefs are very young and solid all around.. but the Ravens defense translates pretty well on the road... so it's a matter of seeing which QB is going to show up. Although, the running game could primarily determine the outcome for either team...
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