øAslickproductions.org/forum/index.php?PHPSESSID=5f0fck550j2m4m2fpbtkj2vkm1&topic=197.0;prev_next=nexte:/My Web Sites/Slick Productions - FFIV Message Board/slickproductions.org/forum/indexc7d6.htmlslickproductions.org/forum/index.php?PHPSESSID=5f0fck550j2m4m2fpbtkj2vkm1&topic=197.0e:/My Web Sites/Slick Productions - FFIV Message Board/slickproductions.org/forum/indexc7d6.html.zxfh^ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÈÀK»OKtext/htmlISO-8859-1gzip8:Ö»ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿWed, 11 Mar 2020 04:32:43 GMT0ó°° ®0®P®€§²ð®fh^ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿD0» Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)

Author Topic: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)  (Read 14889 times)

assassin

  • Bane of Retards
  • *
  • Posts: 1,033
  • space bears are not gentle!
    • View Profile
    • My Barren Webpage
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #30 on: April 29, 2011, 02:41:46 AM »
woo, after a strong few days, i'm up 8.53% from my initial deposit amount.

as mentioned, i lost a TON of money by constantly buying the crappy UVSE on the way down.  fortunately, i recouped a decent chunk of this (nearly half) on another small oil and gas exploration company: Lexaria (LXRP, formerly LXRA).

one thing that killed the UVSE stock is the company issued "floorless convertible debentures".  if the company couldn't make interest payments on the debt, the debt holder would get stock shares in lieu of the cash amount owed -- and there was no bottom limit on the value of the shares acquired.  thus, more and more shares were added each time unpayable interest was due -- until eventually, there were a bazillion shares worth $0.0001 each (which is basically a 100% loss for those of us who initially bought the stock anywhere over a penny).  LXRP has convertible debt, but it's not floorless -- it converts at a set amount.  this avoids the bazillion share problem.  it also takes away incentive any crooked debt holders might have had to "naked short" a ton of shares of the stock, then cover their shorts with their debt redemptions.  i dunno whether this actually happened -- pissed off people on messageboards were theorizing it did -- but it was a possible vulnerability of UVSE.

also, the President of Lexaria has deep pockets, and often loans it needed money on solid, affordable terms.

another issue UVSE has is it's much more focused on natural gas than oil.  this is bad in recent years, because nat gas prices are in the toilet, while oil's soaring.  LXRP, meanwhile, is much more oil-focused.  which is good.

i made some money "investing" in Lexaria.  but much of it was short-term trading.  see, when less people had heard of the stock, it'd have a crazy Bid/Ask, like $0.03/$0.06.  so i'd buy a chunk of shares at 3 cents each, then a few weeks later, i'd be able to turn around and sell them at 6 cents each.  even after deducting trading fees, i still made a decent profit.  repeat this a bunch of times, and i'd accumulate some real money. :)  the Bid/Ask has narrowed to $0.40/$0.52, so it's not as blatant of a flipping opportunity as before, but if you're able to buy a few hundred shares at the bid and sell them at the ask, you can make respectable (imho) money.

this isn't a buy or sell recommendation.  just a tale of two companies, with the latter being an example of a stock with a wide Bid/Ask that can be taken advantage of.  scour the OtC Bulletin Board for other micro cap stocks, and you can find plenty more examples.

i've actually had great luck trading a small bank that's losing money quarter after quarter, with me somehow buying the stock low and selling it high on two occasions.  (on 4/27/11, i was able to sell many of my shares at $0.84, despite the stock trading at a meager $0.20-$0.30 in preceding days.  and despite me only asking for $0.38 in my Sell order.  i initially bought it at $0.30 in early January.  i have no idea who was willing to pay so much for it or why, but they're a godsend. :P  i was resigning myself to having a modest gain in the stock, and a small loss was looking increasingly likely -- so imagine my surprise when the magical transaction happened, and i turned a big profit.)  anyway, i won't name the stock or company, as i can't advise going anywhere near it.  but it's thinly traded, often going days in between transactions, and it's stocks like these where you can get big price swings.  i really lucked out.

assassin

  • Bane of Retards
  • *
  • Posts: 1,033
  • space bears are not gentle!
    • View Profile
    • My Barren Webpage
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #31 on: May 10, 2011, 03:38:32 AM »
woot, the rest of my shares in the bank sold at $0.80 each!  that's a 142% profit for holding the stock about 4 months.  i think i'll try to buy some shares back at around $0.20.  if some people are crazy enough to pay me $0.80+, maybe they're also crazy enough to charge me only $0.20.

I.S.T.

  • i doesnt no how 2 blits
  • *
  • Posts: 482
  • Gender: Female
  • Global Moderator
    • View Profile
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #32 on: May 10, 2011, 04:30:59 PM »
How many shares?

assassin

  • Bane of Retards
  • *
  • Posts: 1,033
  • space bears are not gentle!
    • View Profile
    • My Barren Webpage
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #33 on: May 11, 2011, 02:49:00 AM »
sold 200 in the last batch, and 150 in this batch.  (i initially bought 350 shares at $0.30.)  i might try to buy back 400 shares at $0.20 or so.  i don't want to put as much money on the line as last time, as that's tempting fate, but it's hard not to try again, given how effective it's been.

I.S.T.

  • i doesnt no how 2 blits
  • *
  • Posts: 482
  • Gender: Female
  • Global Moderator
    • View Profile
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #34 on: May 11, 2011, 04:37:53 AM »
Unless I'm being an idiot, you made 75 bucks?

assassin

  • Bane of Retards
  • *
  • Posts: 1,033
  • space bears are not gentle!
    • View Profile
    • My Barren Webpage
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #35 on: May 11, 2011, 06:41:44 AM »
nope, $160.01.

1/4/2011: BOUGHT 350 SHARES AT $0.30, plus $7.53 trading fee = cost $112.53
4/27/2011: SOLD 200 SHARES AT $0.84, minus $7.85 trading fee = proceeds $160.15
5/9/2011: SOLD 150 SHARES AT $0.80, minus $7.61 trading fee = proceeds $112.39

that said, making 75 bucks on an initial investment of $112.53 would still have been great. :D

I.S.T.

  • i doesnt no how 2 blits
  • *
  • Posts: 482
  • Gender: Female
  • Global Moderator
    • View Profile
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #36 on: May 11, 2011, 07:39:20 AM »
Err, I meant net on your last trade, not gross.

assassin

  • Bane of Retards
  • *
  • Posts: 1,033
  • space bears are not gentle!
    • View Profile
    • My Barren Webpage
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #37 on: May 11, 2011, 11:51:48 AM »
ah, i was wondering how you arrived at that.  yup, $75 is the pre-fee profit for the 150 shares ($64 after fees).

though the $160.01 is net for the full 350 shares, not gross.

Lenophis

  • Forum Overlord
  • *
  • Posts: 1,688
  • Gender: Male
  • I sad
    • View Profile
    • Slick Productions
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #38 on: March 09, 2012, 12:32:36 PM »
I thought about making a new thread for this, but this may work better. This was linked by Nightcrawler over at RHDN, and it's kinda frightening, but at the same time I really am not surprised.

119 bugs fixed and counting.

assassin

  • Bane of Retards
  • *
  • Posts: 1,033
  • space bears are not gentle!
    • View Profile
    • My Barren Webpage
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #39 on: March 29, 2012, 04:29:12 AM »
definitely a lot truth to that, but it is surmountable in many ways.  some people have advantages, but there are too many factors influencing the market (e.g. the performance of the companies being traded, the macro economic picture, etc.) for anybody to have a strangehold over it.  i think that the disparity in quick access to information or quick trade execution is mostly relevant for short-term traders, particularly day-traders.  if you're going to hold a stock for a few days or more, then wringing every last penny out of the transaction doesn't matter as much.  buy a company that pays a solid dividend, provided your research suggests it will be sustainable (or better yet, increase regularly over time).

none of the rigging/deck-stacking of the stock market really impacts me income-wise, for two reasons:
1) i don't daytrade.  only investing like $150-$350 at a time, the $7 broker fee would outweigh any fractional-percentage gain i might have in one day.
2) i do so much stupid shit, that other market participants can't hold me back nearly as much as myself, unless they steal my computer or literally stand on me and pin me down so i can't type.

to elaborate on the stupid stuff in #2: starting in late 2008, i bought Vanguard Index Fund ETFs alongside my stocks.  an index fund is designed to capture the movement of larger chunks of the market.

i didn't bother researching how to buy them directly from Vanguard (who has their own brokerage), because i was using Scottrade for my stock investing, and felt like keeping all my activity on one website.  Scottrade charges $7 per trade.  well, a handful of months back, i actually investigated on Vanguard's site, and they charge you $0 to buy and sell their ETFs.  understandable, given they already get a small management fee on the ETFs, regardless of what brokerage you buy them through.  i did the math, and i could have saved $595 in transaction fees over the past 3.5 years by using Vanguard to trade the ETFs.  and since they went up in price during that time, you also need to include the returns i could have earned on that $595, which amounts to at least another $60.

so essentially, i pissed away around $655, out of laziness and not wanting to have another browser window open...  even though i have multiple windows open all the time for other reasons.  (why, Ctrl+N is second only to Ctrl+F in terms of key combo greatness.)

another mistake i've made is purchasing stocks or ETFs in too small of quantities, like $200 (and sometimes even $150).  now, it costs $7 to buy and $7 to sell a security with Scottrade, totaling $14.  meaning ~7% of that purchase is squandered on fees.  to wind up with a 10% net gain on such a purchase, i'd need a gross gain of 17.35% from the stock/ETF -- that's nearly 75% more.  outperforming by that wide of a margin is damned difficult to accomplish consistently, and people who can do so are pretty elite (read: beyond my skills).  i'd be better off consolidating two or three of those purchases into a single larger purchase of an ETF (like SPY).  it can have a smaller gross gain, but i'll still come out ahead.

now, if i'm spending $150-$200 on a stock that shoots up a good ~30% or more (generally a speculative stock, but some established large caps have gone up a lot too), the fees matter less.  they also mattered less during periods of time when the market as a whole went up a lot (e.g. early 2009 - early 2011).  if you see my posts from Spring 2011, i was able to slightly outperform the market from the bottom up until that point.  however, as the market's ascent has slowed, my fees eat a larger percentage of gross gains, and i've actually trailed the market for the past year.  sure, some of this is from bad stockpicking, but that's less of an issue than buying and selling in too-small increments has been.  one way to mitigate the fee issues is to hold for a longer time after buying, but that could blow up in my face if the market tanks again.

thirdly, i STILL have yet to move any of my brokerage cash back into a higher interest bank account. :/  so i've missed out on money there, too.  yes, this is turning into a running gag of sorts.

gogo13

  • Octomammoth
  • *
  • Posts: 20
    • View Profile
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #40 on: March 29, 2012, 06:36:24 PM »

assassin

  • Bane of Retards
  • *
  • Posts: 1,033
  • space bears are not gentle!
    • View Profile
    • My Barren Webpage
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #41 on: April 05, 2012, 03:36:23 AM »
yeah, zerohedge is a good read.  though lots of their stuff on market internals (like the highly-informative Nanex posts) is completely over my head.

as for my portfolio, i picked up 5 shares of AHGP at $42.75 on Monday.  it's fallen some since then, but no worries.  about the company, straight from Yahoo Finance:

Quote
Alliance Holdings GP, L.P., through its subsidiaries, produces and markets coal primarily to utilities and industrial users in the United States. It produces a range of steam coal with varying sulfur and heat contents. The company operates nine underground mining complexes in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, and West Virginia.

it was down over 21% from its January high, coal power isn't going anywhere anytime soon, and it pays a hefty distribution.  i missed the chance to pick some up in October at about $41, then stubbornly refused to chase it at $42, and various other points in its eventual climb to $54.64. :/

the prices for most types of coal have fallen in recent weeks:
http://www.eia.gov/coal/news_markets/
http://www.eia.gov/coal/nymex/

which is probably what drove AHGP and other coal stocks down.  it currently pays $0.6375 a quarter ($2.55 a year), for a yield of 5.96% on my purchase price.  if coal prices keep sliding (which could happen if major users of the commodity -- albeit not clients of this company -- such as China have their economies slow down), then the distribution could be cut some.  but i'm prepared for that, and would be fine with a 4% yield or whatever it'd be.

it's also organized as a limited partnership rather than a normal corporation, which means the tax filings for it are more complicated..  but my taxes are already plenty complicated, so a little more won't hurt. :P

assassin

  • Bane of Retards
  • *
  • Posts: 1,033
  • space bears are not gentle!
    • View Profile
    • My Barren Webpage
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #42 on: April 05, 2012, 07:57:42 AM »
egh, buying ARLP (which is the company that AHGP is a partner in; it's some complicated relationship) might've been better.  they have a lower payout ratio, which means earnings can fall further without them having to cut the distribution.  also, the stock has fallen further than AHGP in recent weeks, which means it might've been a better bargain (or iow, i should have waited until AHGP fell as much %-wise as ARLP before pulling the trigger on it).

assassin

  • Bane of Retards
  • *
  • Posts: 1,033
  • space bears are not gentle!
    • View Profile
    • My Barren Webpage
Re: Super Duper Stock Market Thread (Part Tres)
« Reply #43 on: February 04, 2014, 03:02:01 PM »
my portfolio continued to go up last year, though it did trail the market by a bit.  so my dozens of holdings really just gave me unneeded fees and tax complexity.

i started a Motley Fool CAPS page back in April 2012:
http://caps.fool.com/player/assassin17.aspx

it scores you for each stock or ETF based on how it performs compared to the S&P 500 over the time it's held.  you can also faux short stocks or ETFs with it.

currently, there's just one active position (AEO), started today, and two completed positions (AHGP and WAG).  the latter were successful, though i closed them out WAY too soon (fortunately, i've held them far longer in real life).  i'm actually more selective about what i put in there than what i buy with my own money. :P :'(  i purchased 1 real share of TNH for $133.73 on 12/19/2013, but forgot to buy it for CAPS.  it's still a buy here, IMHO, but i might wait for it to dip under $150 before picking it up for this game.

bbmaven has been the scoring leader of CAPS (with 100.0) for at least several months now.  he/she's a beast!