(5) Jets @ (2) Chargers:
Chargers, 24-20. The Jets kind of remind me of the Ravens. A 9-7 defensive powerhouse who defeats a 10-6 team in the first round of the playoffs while using a rushing-heavy offensive approach. Now, the Jets were plenty more balanced than the 1st round ravens were, with Mark Sanchez turning in a lofty 139.4 QB rating. And the Bengals' defense was a stronger foe than the Patriots'. Still, I can't help but think that the San Diego defense knows what's coming. Can a New York offense who was 31st in passing in the regular season adjust if the running game is stagnant early? The Jets had 4 regular season losses to sub-.500 (final record) teams, which is kinda sad. But they did improve as things went on, winning 5 of their last 6 (even if two of those wins were against pushovers, and one against a resting Indy). However, San Diego finished even stronger, winning their last
11 games.

The Jets' league-leading rushing will stack up quite well against the Chargers' 20th-ranked run defense. Still, Baltimore had a similar favorable matchup against Indy, and look how they fared. So it's imperative that the Jets open things up, and Sanchez has some success throwing the ball. 15 pass attempts probably won't be enough. Against common opponents, both teams beat Oakland and Cincinnati, but the Jets did so more dominantly. Both teams beat Tennessee, but San Diego did so more definitively. The Chargers beat 7-9 Miami, while the Jets narrowly lost to them twice. So I'd give an edge in common matchups to San Diego. In contrast, I wouldn't count their home field as much of an edge; they won more on the road this year, and the Jets played better on the road than at home. As a Bears fan, I should really be pulling for the Jets, since they have Thomas Jones running, and a Buddy Ryan offspring as their head couch. Best of luck to them, but I'm still betting on the Chargers here. :P