New England over Baltimore, 25-22
with an easier schedule, New England is comparatively untested. sure, they were a very good 7 for 9 against teams who were 8-8 or better, similar to Baltimore's 8 for 10. but when you raise the bar to opponents 9-7 or better, the Ravens were an impressive 6 for 7, while the Patriots were a weak 0-2 (albeit with a small sample size).
but on the other hand, New England is dominant at home, and Baltimore is a lackluster 4-4 on the road. the Patriots' 9-game winning streak, while against nobody over 8-8, does underline how consistently they're executing as of late, which makes a repeat of the Jets playoff game last year seem unlikely to me. New England's defense is okay against the rush, which is the Ravens' strength, so i'm not _terribly_ worried about their horrible passing defense here.
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